In the since-mid-May one, less pop but fewer outs.Įither way, Chapman’s providing an OPS around. In the since-mid-June sample, you have a bit more power, a little less on-base. 255/.334/.511 rate he’s produced at since May 16 - essentially the day Chapman began dragging his season out of the rut it began in.Įither of the latter two options seem realistic. It’s probably a bit much to ask Chapman to sustain the. Time to play the arbitrary endpoints game. Who’s one player who’s already doing his part as the stretch run approaches? Someone from whom the Jays would happily take more of the same? And, boy, imagine what it’d look like if the Blue Jays hadn’t frittered away all those games against the Orioles and Guardians a couple weeks ago?Ģ. But it’s a more realistic chance now than it was on Thursday. That’s not a circumstance anyone was anticipating a month ago.Ī sensible read of the situation still gives Toronto only an extremely outside chance of actually catching New York over the next six weeks. The one thing you can say is that by winning a four-game series in the Bronx last week, the Blue Jays at least put the divisional race in play. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Yankees rattle off six or seven wins in a row between now and September.

That’s why an objective measure like FanGraphs playoff odds still gives them a 91 percent chance of winning the AL East - a projection that likely looks extremely similar to the proprietary models every team utilizes in its decision-making. But true talent typically wins out in the end.Īnd there’s no denying the Yankees talent. Just as it’s unreasonable to expect them to continue losing at the.

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